I got up early today (well, a fairly normal time for me, actually – 4AM) to see if Korea could make any kind of showing against Brazil in the World Cup’s first knockout round. It didn’t take long before I knew they wouldn’t. Brazil put on a clinic in precise passing with perfect pace on the ball. They knew what they were doing, and while that’s the case with every team at this level, there was a clear difference. When I saw Korea – and when I watched the US earlier in their loss to the Netherlands – sure, there was plenty of nice passing and good runs at the goal, but there were also mistakes every few touches. Not bad mistakes. Just the occasional pass that was a bit off-line, or maybe a bit too much on the ball.
And there’s the difference. When Brazil needed it – bang, bang, bang – goal. Even their dive game is elite.
Yeah, it didn’t take long before everyone knew there would be no Cinderella stories out of the Korean side. And no wonder, really. There have been 21 World Cup finals, but only 8 winners. Spain and England have won once. Uruguay, France, and Argentina, twice each. Italy and Germany, four; and Brazil (at the moment), five.
Here’s the thing, though. Starting in 2026, there will be 48 teams (as opposed to the current 32). I get that. More games. More participants. More crazy fun. I’ve been to a few World Cup matches, and the whole atmosphere is incredible. But in the end? Maybe we can be encouraged that over the past 5 World Cups, 14 different teams account for the top 4 winners (20 total slots), and only Brazil has repeated as champions in that time frame (2002 and 2014). But, as I write this, 6 of the final 8 are already set, and every one of them has been a top-4 team in the last 2 finals (France, Croatia, and England were 1st, 2nd, and 4th in 2018; and Brazil, Argentina, and Netherlands were 1st, 3rd, and 4th in 2014). Of the remaining 4 teams, only Morocco and Switzerland are “outsiders.” Portugal is on the cusp, only having taken 4th in 2006, but Spain won it all in 2010. I suppose we can hope for Morocco to make a dent this year. Looking at it now, that whole last bracket being so thin on previous top-4 teams means at least one of the final 4 will be “kind of” new.
But…Brazil. And I don’t think a whole lot is going to change by 2026. Except then, we’ll have 48 teams in the mix…but still, generally, the same dozen contenders at best, unless someone finds their mojo in the next 4 years. The US has fielded their youngest team ever this year, so maybe by 2026, and with a home-field advantage, they may be able to crack the final eight again like they did in 2002.
Still, they need help. They need a couple more pieces to fall into place. While teams like Brazil are deep at every spot, the US can’t seem to put together a solid all-around team. I remember in 2002, it seemed their defense was weak. This year, I liked what I saw in the back, but their scoring was abysmal. They could only manage 3 goals in 4 games. I went to three matches in 2002, and the US scored twice that in just the matches I attended – to include three against Portugal, although one was an own-goal (the thing about own-goals though is that you’ve got to be pressing the goal enough in the first place to have the opponent put it in).
Well, the teams I followed most closely and wanted to do well both made it to the knockout round…then were knocked out quite easily. I’ll wait for 2026 to see what might come up. I think the US will do better then, for sure. The format right now for ’26 looks like 16 three-team groups where the top 2 advance to bring it back down to 32, which would kind of bring it in line with current format; but FIFA’s discovering that the three-team group format might lend itself to collusion among two teams to play for results that would sink the third team (where before, a fourth team could always factor in, along with the final matches all being played simultaneously). So apparently, that’s still up in the air.
In any case, 2026 could be interesting. But then again, I don’t see it being much different…