Maybe my brother has rubbed off on me a bit. I’ve watched parts of the movie Moneyball, and liked it. But there’s an underlying problem behind the concepts depicted in the movie.
The movie is the story of the 2002 Oakland Athletics (A’s) baseball team and the general manager (Billy Beane) use of sabermetrics (the statistical study of baseball) to put together a budget team that, statistically, may be able to compete.
And Beane was successful. The A’s won 103 games that year, but lost in the playoffs. The point though was this – that if you crunch the numbers enough, you’re going to come up with a winning formula.
One of the endearing points of baseball for some people is the ability to break down the games in minute detail. To play the odds and increase your chances of winning by simply putting in a left-handed batter against a particular pitcher. Thing is, it got so bad that baseball had to rewrite the rules. Starting a season or two ago, managers now have to leave pitchers in to face a minimum number of batters. Why? Because they’d be out there making several pitching changes an inning just to play those odds in extreme cases.
Now this might be OK for some people, but others like the game for other reasons. I like its easy and undemanding pace. I like it when managers are creative on offense – when they “manufacture” runs piecemeal – scoring runs just by playing good baseball in little bits and not going for the big shots (a frustration of my brother’s and me – the desire to score it all on one swing of the bat). This absolutely ruins some players (Keston Hiura of the Brewers for example).
But baseball isn’t really bothering me right now. It’s structure really lends itself to statistical study, and if that’s your thing, then it’s something you can enjoy. And if it’s not – if you prefer sitting back with a beer and chatting with the people around you – well, you can do that too.
No. What’s bothering me now is that I’m hearing a lot of statistics creeping into the discussion of football. And it’s about the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard. I’m hearing stats and analysis of things I have no way of understanding, but these guys are telling me “This is why this isn’t a very good team.” And what cracks me up is that they’re talking about teams like the Green Bay Packers – who are 9-3 and have beaten every team in what was supposed to be the best division in football.
But they’re not very good. Because stats.
And it’s nearly infuriating listening to guys like this. I mean, I guess that’s their thing. But if it is, then their thing is wrong.
Watch Moneyball and The Trouble With The Curve as a double feature. They balance each other, both sides of the coin.